(Adds closing prices)
Sept 29 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures for the most active month fell over 8% on Tuesday on
forecasts for less demand over the next two weeks than previously expected and a rise in output.
For the front-month, however, the contract was up over 21% to a three-week high due to the
roll of the less expensive October future into the much more expensive November. That is the biggest
one-day percentage gain for the front-month since 2009 when a similar October to November contract roll
caused it to jump 31%.
On its first day as the front-month, gas futures for November delivery fell 23.4 cents, or
8.4%, from where the November contract traded on Monday to settle at $2.561 per million British thermal
units, their highest since Sept. 4.
Data provider Refinitiv said output in the Lower 48 U.S. states rose to a one-week high of 86.1
billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) on Monday from a four-month low of 84.4 bcfd last week.
With cooler weather coming, Refinitiv projected demand, including exports, would rise from 82.9
bcfd this week to 84.7 bcfd next week due to higher heating usage and liquefied natural gas (LNG)
exports. That, however, is lower than Refinitiv forecast on Monday because higher gas prices were
expected to cause some power generators to burn more coal and less gas to produce electricity.
The amount of gas flowing to LNG export plants averaged 5.6 bcfd so far in September. That was the
most in a month since May and was up for a second month in a row for the first time since hitting a
record 8.7 bcfd in February as rising global gas prices prompted buyers to reverse some cargo
cancellations.
Cameron LNG's export plant in Louisiana started taking in small amounts of gas over the past few
days.
Week ended Week ended Year ago Five-year
Sep 25 Sep 18 Sep 25 average
(Forecast) (Actual) Sep 25
U.S. natgas storage (bcf): +85 +66 +109 +78 Refinitiv Heating (HDD), Cooling (CDD) and Total (TDD) Degree Days
Two-Week Total Forecast Current Day Prior Day Prior Year 10-Year 30-Year Norm
Norm
U.S. GFS HDDs 80 79 75 73 94
U.S. GFS CDDs 70 73 99 72 57
U.S. GFS TDDs 150 152 174 145 151
Refinitiv U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts
Prior Week Current Week Next Week This Week Five-Year
Last Year Average For
Month
U.S. Supply (bcfd)
U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production 85.6 85.7 85.4 94.4 79.7
U.S. Imports from Canada 5.5 5.8 6.1 7.6 8.1
U.S. LNG Imports 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
Total U.S. Supply 91.1 91.5 91.4 102.0 87.7
U.S. Demand (bcfd)
U.S. Exports to Canada 2.0 2.1 2.1 2.2 2.3
U.S. Exports to Mexico 6.0 5.8 6.0 5.9 4.5
U.S. LNG Exports 5.7 6.3 7.5 6.3 2.1
U.S. Commercial 5.2 5.3 6.0 5.3 4.7
U.S. Residential 4.7 4.8 6.1 4.9 3.7
U.S. Power Plant 30.9 30.7 28.8 34.3 32.0
U.S. Industrial 21.6 21.8 22.1 21.4 20.6
U.S. Plant Fuel 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.4
U.S. Pipe Distribution 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.9
U.S. Vehicle Fuel 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
Total U.S. Consumption 68.6 68.7 69.2 72.0 67.4
Total U.S. Demand 82.4 82.9 84.7 86.4 76.3 SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu)
Hub Current Day Prior Day
Henry Hub 1.83 1.90
Transco Z6 New York 1.40 0.98
PG&E Citygate 4.00 3.99
Dominion South 1.25 0.98
Chicago Citygate 1.53 1.70
Algonquin Citygate 1.72 1.08
SoCal Citygate 3.60 3.05
Waha Hub 1.08 0.67 SNL U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour)
Hub Current Day Prior Day
New England 29.00 20.00
PJM West 23.75 20.50
Ercot North 18.75 17.00
Mid C 36.00 36.50
Palo Verde 55.25 54.29
SP-15 56.50 49.00
(Reporting by Scott DiSavino Reporting by Harshith Aranya and K. Sathya Narayanan in Bengaluru;
editing by Steve Orlofsky and Nick Zieminski)
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